THE extraordinary surge of stock market volatility during the last month can’t be explained by conventional means. Yes, hundreds of scholarly papers have tried to predict the size of such swings, and whole markets — like those for futures and options thrive on these movements. Yet we still don’t have a clear, mathematical understanding of volatility’s source.
Last month, market watchers might have thought they were witnessing a gamma ray burst from outer space, with waves of sudden, crazy noise: On Thursday, Aug. 4, the market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, fell by almost 5 percent. The next day was quiet, but the following Monday, the index dropped almost 7 percent. In successive days, it rose 4.7 percent, fell 4.4 percent and rose 4.3 percent. Bigger-than normal changes have persisted since, though they haven’t been quite as drastic.
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Showing posts with label volatility. Show all posts
Showing posts with label volatility. Show all posts
Saturday, September 3, 2011
Monday, January 4, 2010
Continued housing volatility a sure bet
By Robert J. Shiller at chinaview.cn
BEIJING, Jan. 4 -- Volatility in the housing market has long been known, but until now it has never been visible in so many places around the world at the same time. Indeed, the year 2009 might even be a milestone marking a new era of volatility.
Since 2000, we have seen the most dramatic evidence ever of speculative bubbles in markets for owner-occupied homes. Home prices exploded after 2000 in North America, Europe and Asia, and in many isolated places elsewhere in the world. Markets peaked in 2007, and then fell sharply in many of these places with the onset of the global financial crisis. Surprisingly, prices rebounded in some places in 2009. It seems the story never ends.
In the United States, the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Home Price Index recorded the biggest turnaround since the index began in 1987, rising 5 percent (a 15 percent annual rate) from April to August 2009, after having fallen 7 percent (a 21 percent annual rate) in the four months from December 2008 to March 2009. Recent increases in home prices have also been seen in Australia, the UK, South Korea, Singapore, Sweden and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and optimistic talk is heard in still more places.
Read the full commentary
BEIJING, Jan. 4 -- Volatility in the housing market has long been known, but until now it has never been visible in so many places around the world at the same time. Indeed, the year 2009 might even be a milestone marking a new era of volatility.
Since 2000, we have seen the most dramatic evidence ever of speculative bubbles in markets for owner-occupied homes. Home prices exploded after 2000 in North America, Europe and Asia, and in many isolated places elsewhere in the world. Markets peaked in 2007, and then fell sharply in many of these places with the onset of the global financial crisis. Surprisingly, prices rebounded in some places in 2009. It seems the story never ends.
In the United States, the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Home Price Index recorded the biggest turnaround since the index began in 1987, rising 5 percent (a 15 percent annual rate) from April to August 2009, after having fallen 7 percent (a 21 percent annual rate) in the four months from December 2008 to March 2009. Recent increases in home prices have also been seen in Australia, the UK, South Korea, Singapore, Sweden and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and optimistic talk is heard in still more places.
Read the full commentary
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