Video: Robert Shiller at Neuroscience 2011

Robert J. Shiller, PhD, presents "Animal Spirits: How Human Behavior Drives the Economy," with SfN President Susan Amara and neuroscientists Antonio Rangel and Wolfram Schultz on November 12 at Neuroscience 2011 in Washington, DC.

Note: Dr. Shiller's remarks begin at 19 minutes.

Herding animal spirits to revive the economy

From ShanghaiDaily.com:

Since hitting bottom in early March, the world's major stock markets have all risen dramatically.

Some, notably in China and Brazil, reached lows last fall and again in March, before rebounding sharply, with Brazil's Bovespa up 75 percent in May compared to late October 2008, and the Shanghai Composite up 54 percent in roughly the same period.

But the stock market news just about everywhere has been very good since March. Does this suggest that the world economic crisis is coming to an end? Could it be that everyone becomes optimistic again at the same time, bringing a quick end to all our problems?

Good Government and Animal Spirits

From WSJ.com:

The principal long-term result of the current financial crisis should be improved financial regulation. After the immediate crisis is over, we need to restructure our fragmented system. This process will take years to complete since, if properly done, it should get at the heart of the regulatory structure.

This is not as radical as it sounds, for while many observers equate U.S.-style capitalism with unconstrained free markets, the story is more complicated. Americans have long understood that for the economy to work well, government must play an important supporting role. They've also long understood the important role that self-regulatory organizations (SROs), such as trade associations and exchanges, play in cooperation with government regulation.

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Maclean’s Interview: Robert Shiller

From Macleans.ca:

Robert Shiller is a professor of economics at Yale and the bestselling author of Irrational Exuberance, in which he predicted the collapse of the stock market. He was also one of the first economists to accurately foresee the devastation that would follow the subprime mortgage crisis. In Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why it Matters for Global Capitalism, written with George Akerlof, he argues that today’s markets are as much driven by human psychology as by finance. Shiller uses the idea of “animal spirits,” a term invented by revolutionary economist John Maynard Keynes, to describe the powerful effect of human emotion and confidence on the economy, and to push for more government intervention and bigger stimulus packages in the U.S. and Canada.

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Depression Lurks Unless There’s More Stimulus: Robert Shiller

From Bloomberg.com:

In the Great Depression of the 1930s the U.S. government had a great deal of trouble maintaining its commitment to economic stimulus. “Pump- priming” was talked about and tried, but not consistently. The Depression could have been mostly prevented, but wasn’t. Ultimately, the reason for this policy failure was inadequate understanding of the relevant economic theory.

In the face of a similar Depression-era psychology today, we are in need of massive pump-priming again. We appear to be in a much better situation due to the stronger efforts to date. Still, there is a danger that, because of a combination of faulty economic theory and inadequate appreciation of human psychology, as well as deep public anger, we will not continue with such stimulus on a high enough level.

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Emotions key to economic recovery

From CNN.com:

President Obama's National Economic Council head Lawrence Summers noted in his speech March 13 that the economic crisis has led to an "excess of fear" that must be reversed.

To understand the role fear plays in the current crisis, we must understand the role of human psychology.

John Maynard Keynes thought psychology was the major cause of economic booms as well as busts, though this aspect of his work is now largely forgotten. He said people's economic decisions, in both good times and bad times, are largely, ultimately, if indirectly, driven by animal spirits, primitive psychological tendencies.

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Shiller Lecture: "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Caused the Current Economic Crisis"

Economist Robert Shiller delivers the first annual Beattie Family Lecture in Business Law at the Faculty of Law at The University of Western Ontario on March 27, 2009. Prof. Shiller spoke on "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology caused the Current Economic Crisis."



A video of the full lecture is available through ITunesU and YouTube.

A Failure to Control the Animal Spirits

In the Financial Times:

Lydia Lopokova, wife of the economist John Maynard Keynes, was a famous ballerina. She was also a Russian émigré. Thus Keynes knew from the experience of his in-laws the horrors of living in the worst of socialist economies. But he also knew first-hand the great difficulties that come from unregulated, unfettered capitalism. He lived through the British depression of the 1920s and 1930s. Thus Keynes was inspired to find a middle way for modern economies.

We are seeing, in this financial crisis, a rebirth of Keynesian economics. We are talking again of his 1936 book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, which was written during the Great Depression. This era, like the present, saw many calls to end capitalism as we know it. The 1930s have been called the heyday of communism in western countries. Keynes’s middle way would avoid the unemployment and the panics and manias of capitalism. But it would also avoid the economic and political controls of communism. The General Theory became the most important economics book of the 20th century because of its sensible balanced message.

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Animal Spirits Depend on Trust

From the Wall Street Journal:

President Obama is urging Congress to pass an $825 billion stimulus package as soon as possible. But even that may not be enough to stabilize the economy, since it fails to take into account the downward spiral of animal spirits that is underway and may continue to worsen.

The term "animal spirits," popularized by John Maynard Keynes in his 1936 book "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money," is related to consumer or business confidence, but it means more than that. It refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith. When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or hire people.

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