Saturday, August 1, 2020

How to Navigate the Coronavirus Real Estate Market

There are signs that pockets of the U.S. housing market are heating up, particularly in the suburbs and fashionable exurbs, to which people have been fleeing to escape the coronavirus.

Some first-time buyers are feeling a sudden hurry to buy, fearing higher prices if they wait. But they are also worried about the long-run outlook for home prices.

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Tuesday, July 7, 2020

Understanding the Pandemic Stock Market

The worse economic fundamentals and forecasts become, the more mysterious stock-market outcomes in the US appear. At a time when genuine news suggests that equity prices should be tanking, not hitting record highs, explanations based on crowd psychology, the virality of ideas, and the dynamics of narrative epidemics can shed some light.

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Friday, May 29, 2020

Why We Can’t Foresee the Pandemic’s Long-Term Effects

Longer-term analyses of the coronavirus pandemic emphasize that there is a good chance that it will fade within a year or two, especially if a vaccine or effective treatment appears.

I hope that’s true. But even if it is, I’m worried that the economy may not return to normal within that time frame.

Big events like a pandemic have the potential to leave behind a trail of disruption. They can create social discord, reduce people’s willingness to spend and take risks, destroy business momentum and shake confidence in the value of investments.

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Thursday, April 2, 2020

Predictions for the Coronavirus Stock Market

One prediction seems solid: The coronavirus epidemic will get much worse in the United States in coming weeks. But where the stock market is heading is much less certain.

It is too simple to assume that with its steep decline, the market has already discounted epidemiologists’ forecasts for Covid-19. By this logic, the stock market would fall further only if the virus turns out to be worse than forecast.

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Tuesday, March 31, 2020

The Two Pandemics

Predicting the stock market at a time like this is hard. To do so well, we would have to predict the direct effects on the economy of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as all the real and psychological effects of the pandemic of financial anxiety. The two are different, but inseparable.

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