Friday, May 29, 2020

Why We Can’t Foresee the Pandemic’s Long-Term Effects

Longer-term analyses of the coronavirus pandemic emphasize that there is a good chance that it will fade within a year or two, especially if a vaccine or effective treatment appears.

I hope that’s true. But even if it is, I’m worried that the economy may not return to normal within that time frame.

Big events like a pandemic have the potential to leave behind a trail of disruption. They can create social discord, reduce people’s willingness to spend and take risks, destroy business momentum and shake confidence in the value of investments.

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Thursday, April 2, 2020

Predictions for the Coronavirus Stock Market

One prediction seems solid: The coronavirus epidemic will get much worse in the United States in coming weeks. But where the stock market is heading is much less certain.

It is too simple to assume that with its steep decline, the market has already discounted epidemiologists’ forecasts for Covid-19. By this logic, the stock market would fall further only if the virus turns out to be worse than forecast.

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Tuesday, March 31, 2020

The Two Pandemics

Predicting the stock market at a time like this is hard. To do so well, we would have to predict the direct effects on the economy of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as all the real and psychological effects of the pandemic of financial anxiety. The two are different, but inseparable.

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