Saturday, February 18, 2017

Why Trump’s 2-for-1 Rule on Regulations Is No Quick Fix

President Trump intends to pare back a vast array of government regulations in fields like environmental protection, food and drug safety, and consumer finance. On Jan. 30 he ordered that for every new regulation it imposes, the government must get rid of two old ones.

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Sunday, January 22, 2017

Narrative Economics

This address considers the epidemiology of narratives relevant to economic fluctuations. The human brain has always been highly tuned towards narratives, whether factual or not, to justify ongoing actions, even such basic actions as spending and investing. Stories motivate and connect activities to deeply felt values and needs. Narratives “go viral” and spread far, even worldwide, with economic impact. The 1920-21 Depression, the Great Depression of the 1930s, the so-called “Great Recession” of 2007-9 and the contentious political-economic situation of today, are considered as the results of the popular narratives of their respective times. Though these narratives are deeply human phenomena that are difficult to study in a scientific manner, quantitative analysis may help us gain a better understanding of these epidemics in the future.

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Friday, January 20, 2017

The Illusions Driving Up US Asset Prices

NEW HAVEN – Speculative markets have always been vulnerable to illusion. But seeing the folly in markets provides no clear advantage in forecasting outcomes, because changes in the force of the illusion are difficult to predict.

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Sunday, January 15, 2017

Making America Great Again Isn’t Just About Money and Power

“Make America Great Again,” the slogan of President-elect Donald J. Trump’s successful election campaign, has been etched in the national consciousness. But it is hard to know what to make of those vague words. 

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Saturday, November 26, 2016

Trump, and Great Business Ideas for America

A businessman with a lifetime of experience in management has been elected president of the United States. Donald J. Trump’s administration may be viewed as an experiment — an opportunity to discover whether one particular businessman’s perspective and skills will be assets in governing a nation.

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Monday, November 21, 2016

Donald Trump and the Sense of Power

NEW HAVEN – US President-elect Donald Trump campaigned in part on a proposal to cut taxes dramatically for those with high incomes, a group whose members often have elite educations as well. And yet his most enthusiastic support tended to come from those with average and stagnating incomes and low levels of education. What gives?

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Saturday, October 15, 2016

What’s Behind a Rise in Ethnic Nationalism? Maybe the Economy

Global economic weakness and a rise in inequality appear to be causing a disturbing growth in ethnic nationalism.

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